Years reqd for doubling

Table 1 below shows the number of years it could take for a grade jump, that is for an economy to double its current level of income per head, at different rates of annual economic growth. At a 10% rate of growth, one grade jump takes six years, while at a 2% rate of economic growth, it takes a generation for one doubling of the output of the economy to occur. Furthermore, 2% is not the slowest rate of economic growth. Some economies, where population growth has outstripped the rate of economic development, have had nil or negative rates of economic development as measured by income per head.

Table 1

The doubling period for different rates of economic growth

Years for grade jumps

	at 10%	At 8%	at 6%	at 4%	at 2%

One grade	6	9	12	17	19
Two	12	18	24	34	38
Three	18	27	36	51	57
Four	24	36	48	68	76
Five	30	45	60	85	95
Six	36	54	72	102	114

The more usual situation has been middling growth rates of about two to four percent a year in most grade 1 to 5 economies. There is no need for that situation to persist. The economic miracle economies - the USA under Roosevelt, Meiji Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and several other China Sea economies have shown that a country can develop rapidly, in some cases from impoverishment to development, jumping through grades, in one Kondratieff cycle of about fifty four years.

Although 10% economic growth is available for countries which have the will to make the commensurate changes in their financial-industrial system, that rate of growth is only available up to a Grade 6 development level. Due to the Carrington limits, growth beyond 10% is not realistically possible and very rapid growth beyond the Carrington plateau of about $25,000 to $30,000 a head is not available either. Countries cannot jump six grades at a rate of 10% all the way, and an average rate of 8% is much more realistic for longer-term forecasting.

However, despite the Carrington limits the speed of transit of an economy from Grades 1 to 6 could be relatively rapid. It only needs fifty years for all the economies in grades 1 to 5 to join the developed economies at the grade 6 or 7 development level.

It would take about a century in the absence of a growth-accelerating system for a country to move from grades one or two to grades six or seven. There is no need for these five generations to suffer from low incomes.

The entire process can be reduced to a couple of generations and the welfare and happiness of much of mankind now needs an adequate response from the relevant governments to bring about these better living standards.

We would love to help.

Again, the difficulty of dong this should not be underestimated. But at least half a dozen nations have made the necessary changes. At present, over a quarter of the people of the world are in high-growth economies. By the middle of the this century, half of the world's people will be such economies.

May your nation be among them.

Choosing a contract with EML

Home Contents Consultancy Services News

World Economic Development Publications

Book 5 Chapter headings FAQs Feedback Last words

Date last modified: 02/23/03