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The consultancy for accelerating economic development World Economic Development 10 Key Messages FAQs Feedback Index to Major National Economies Grading system for development
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The Probability of Igniting the Atmosphere Using The Atomic Bomb Jack Straw, with a show of bravado and complete stupidity, has mentioned the possibility of atom-bombing the Iraqis and has said that this “could not be ruled out.” Atomic explosions in the atmosphere create an unusual risk of total planetary destruction. The risk is low but real, and it is not one that should be undertaken for any reason. The scientists at Los Alamos, when they were building the atom bomb, discussed the possibility of the atom bomb creating the same atmospheric pressure and temperature conditions as these in a hypothetical nitrogen-oxygen sun, and atomically igniting the atmosphere. As E D Regis reports on p 216 of “Great Mambo Chicken and the TransHuman Condition,” (Penguin Books, London, 1992) “Edward Teller had thought about it, the chance that the atomic explosion would light up the surrounding air and that this conflagration would then propagate itself around the world. Some of the bomb makers had even calculated the numerical odds of this actually happening, coming up with the figure of three chances in a million they’d incinerate the Earth. Nevertheless, they went ahead and exploded the bomb.” The original atom bombs were a mere 15 kilotons or so, and the odds on destroying the Earth through atmospheric ignition were calculated as about three in a million! At first glance, that low probability looks reassuring. But if the probabilities increased in line with the bomb’s explosive force, the odds look like this: Risks of Atomic Ignition of the Atmosphere Period Explosive force Risk of AAI* Early (1945) atomic weapons 15 KT 3 in a million Hydrogen bomb 5 MT 1 in a thousand Largest ever atomic bomb 60-90 MT 1 in 50 (2%) *Atomic Atmospheric Ignition Furthermore, since there are now at least 50,000 atomic bombs in existence, and on average they may have an explosive power of a third of a megaton (chances of igniting the atmosphere: about six in a hundred thousand) if about one-third of the atomic bombs in existence were exploded, the odds on igniting the atmosphere could become about 50%. This is an important issue because everyone fighting a war assumes that humanity would survive, that the planet would survive, that the ecosphere will not be fatally injured. These assumptions now look as if they might be wrong. Much smaller atomic bombs could probably create the temperature and pressure conditions in an nitrogen-oxygen sun by using the lensing effect already made use of in the hydrogen bomb. For example, a pattern of six ten-megaton hydrogen bombs exploded simultaneously in a hexagonal pattern at the correct distance from a central core containing a thirty-megaton hydrogen bomb might theoretically ignite the atmosphere. Fermi greatly annoyed General Groves by offering to bet against the A-Bomb tests igniting the atmosphere. He thought it was much more likely they'd just create a long-lasting hot spot, an atomic fire zone in Arizona. We can see from the effect of large asteroids on Jupiter than such gigaton explosions would probably not immediately destroy the whole Earth. It might just create a raging red spot, a brilliantly hot area hundreds or thousands of miles across which would not cool down for thousands, perhaps for hundreds of thousands, of years. The physics are difficult, but if the atmospheric weather effects are not enough to disperse the heat created by the bomb, and if the heat melts the rocks and opens the core, then the hot spot could persist. Terrestial weather patterns are at present dominated by the effects of the high land of the Central Asian Plateau. Nearly all existing life would not survive the creation of that kind of hot spot on the Earth. The Bible says God made the Earth in seven days. Mankind could now unmake this planet in much less than that. It is a pity that only in our destructive capability are we now the equal of God. Politicians really need to think before they consider making statements about the use of the atomic bomb. Personally, I don’t want them to take risks with the survival of the planet. Do you? |
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