Ten Key Messages of This Website

On Economics

1 There is a transferable procedure that can produce explosive rates of economic growth. That procedure was invented in Roosevelt’s America in the late 1930s, it was copied by the Japanese in 1945 and has since spread to several of the countries of the China Sea (for example to South Korea and Taiwan, and most notably since about the late 1970s to China itself). See The Age of Roosevelt.

Understanding that procedure, and trying to persuade politicians and others to practice it, has been one of the driving obsessions of my life. I have written five books on the subject (two co-authored with John C Carrington, two written on my own – see Publications), and a fifth book Lucky Bastards of the 20th Century, The Story of the Economic Bomb, is published in its entirety on this website. I have also contributed to, or written, a score of articles. The most prominent of these were co-authored by the late, great Lord Lever and were produced in the middle pages of the Sunday Times from 7 November 1980. Through the Grylls Group, and with others I lobbied the Thatcher governments.

2 This website offers that procedure for accelerating economic growth to every nation. My initial interest in this subject and the root of my obsession was a desire to reverse the economic decline of the United Kingdom and the Anglo-Saxon group of countries. But Thatcher the British ex-Prime Minister did not decide to act upon this issue, and neither did Lawson or Howe (both Chancellors of the Exchequer – that’s the head of the Treasury for foreign readers) after meetings in 11 Downing Street. (For what Howe said, see the quote at 7.9 A meeting with Hideo Mizuki - part of Chapter 7 of my fifth book.) I also wrote to, and met with, a great many other business leaders, politicians, economists and bankers. I kept trying during the 1990s, writing to many others. Major passed my letter to Heseltine (then head of the DTI) who passed it to his head economist. Clinton did not listen (he probably did not even get the chance to read what I had written). The Chief Economist of India did not reply.

In this website, I am taking the excellent advice offered to me by an Asian civil servant, that I should take my pupils where I can find them (see Chapter 5, section 6). See Consultancy Services

3 That procedure for accelerating economic development works. It has worked so far in the USA, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan and in China and is likely to work wherever it is adopted. What is being said on this website is often not just true, valid and workable but it is obvious! That particularly applies to the proper financing for long term investment and economic growth. The system I am describing is obviously a variant of capitalism - it is the creation of debt by government to ensure higher private investment and better economic growth within a private enterprise system - but it is much more effective than pure capitalism at producing the goods. See "Lucky Bastards of the 20th Century, The story of the Economic Bomb", Chapter 2 "Seven examples of the economic bomb."

4 If a country wishes to accelerate its rate of economic development, we can help. This company has been set up for that purpose. This company can build mission teams to help the key people in countries to understand the theory and implement the procedures for accelerating economic development. A key part of that assistance within a country mission is the provision of training services, as part of the package in a consultancy contract. See Consultancy contracts for the terms of engagement, style of operation, and other aspects of this company.

5 The world is at an early stage of its economic development and great economic growth is possible for nearly all nations. The absence of investment credit economics is stifling development and innovation in most countries of the world. See World Economic Development.

These enormous economic potentials could in the long run lead towards a more fully civilised and intelligent world-circling society, should we all live that long. See Investment credit and cultural diversity

Economic development and war

6 World war in the 21st century is very likely. World wars seem to occur when the previously ascendent, hegemonic nation is eclipsed by the growing economic power of another country. This is likely to happen several times in the 21st Century unless political activity avoids that outcome. China will inevitably eclipse the USA as surely as Germany’s growing economic might eclipsed Great Britain’s a century ago. This makes world war very likely. See The likelihood of World War in the 21st Century.

The great powers of the future are the countries with the greatest populations. This is inevitable because the greatest source of national income lies in the outputs and expenditures of the people, and the more people, all other things being equal, the more economic power. Hence the greatest powers (if the world and the nation state survive in their current forms) from 2050 or so would be China, India, United Europe, and the USA in that order.

In the absence of the hyperstate, the world will face an unstable era of contending powers. All eras in which major states contend have been periods of world war. This one is unlikely to be different.

7 Such a war could end all life on Earth. A minor atomic war could cause a nuclear winter and devastating climatic change, a larger one could produce a runaway green house effect, and an all out nuclear war could turn the sun into a temporary double star through the ignition of the atmosphere. See The Chicxulub: A new measure of the likely effects of atomic war

8 World war could be avoided indefinitely by the creation of the hyperstate. See Avoiding Atomic War Internal conflict can be minimised by economic development and a more fair society. See The Need for Economic Miracles

9 It seems that intelligent life is unlikely to live long in any location in this universe. Evolution equips all life with a striving for ascendancy. In intelligent life this takes the form of war, and the preparation of war, between different nations and cultures. Intelligent life inevitably discovers the atomic bomb. Conflict between nation states and the atomic bomb are incompatible with species or planetary survival. See Evolution and Intelligence.

10 But somewhere, sometime, intelligent life will rise to the challenge thrown down by its evolutionary nature. That might be us. It probably won’t be, judging by the basis of our current behaviour, in which a foolish aggressiveness is normally dominant over constructive cooperation and truly intelligent behaviour. The problem is that most of mankind can be constructive, cooperative and intelligent but the ruling elites in all countries are usually more competitive, more callous, and more foolish. And the leaders, usually drawn from that somewhat narrow self-serving elite, are the ones who have the power to press the button.

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Date last modified: 07/07/06